Tesla 2026 Delivery Dreams: From “3 Million Cars” to “Eh, Maybe 1.8 Million… If We’re Lucky”

Wall Street just took Tesla’s 2026 delivery forecast out back and gave it the “reality check” treatment:

Two years ago: “3+ million cars, easy, we’re taking over the world!” Today: “Yeah… about that… how does ~1.8 million sound? Maybe? Please?”

Analysts (Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha, Motley Fool) are basically saying: “Tesla, we love the Robotaxi vibes and the ‘Amazing Abundance’ rebrand (great Christmas gift, Elon), but unless your Cybercabs start printing money or Optimus starts mowing lawns for cash, 2026 is looking like a rough year.”

Meanwhile BYD is over there quietly selling more EVs than Tesla in 2025 and probably laughing in Mandarin while counting their money.

Tesla owners in the comments: “It’s not declining deliveries, it’s strategic scarcity!” “Amazing Abundance means amazing margins… right? …right???”

Elon somewhere tweeting: “Don’t worry, the Robotaxis will save us. They’ll be here any day now. Any day.” (Meanwhile the Austin Robotaxi fleet is still basically five cars taking turns napping.)

Moral of the story: When your 2026 sales forecast drops by almost HALF in two years, maybe it’s time to stop promising the moon and start delivering the actual cars.